Agricultural Science, Green Revolution and Farmer Suicides

It seems that many farmers are reaching the dead end of No-Through road of Green Revolution.

Farmers' suicide is a subject too painful to discuss with the grieving families but it demands a public debate discussion about its possible causes and solutions. Wherever the Green Revolution was unleashed in developing countries few decades ago, marginal farmers are paying the ultimate price for its 'success' now. Are farmers the main culprit and deserve this harsh penalty or there are others factors that might have contributed to their demise.

To understand the complete picture, firstly we need to establish and define the major players of this game and their respective roles in it. 

Farmers of modern agricultural model are not farmers in true sense. They can be classified as miners because they are mining their soil and water. They can also be classified as petty-industrialists relying on cheap fossil fuels as their energy source along with other petro-chemical poisons and fertilisers as their farm inputs. Modern farmers can also be classified as 'Suicide-Bombers', going by the number of cancerous disease related deaths they bear in the process of perusing chemical farming.

Food production and politics of any country cannot be looked in isolation.  Whoever controls the political power (State) of any country, also controls the food production and distribution. Using subsidies, licenses and minimum support prices, not only they indirectly control which crop is grown from which seed, which chemical is sprayed to kill the weeds but where the farmers sell their produce and at what price. State also controls the research cum educational institutions like Agricultural Universities thus controlling what is taught to the next generation of scientists and what is recommend to the present generation of farmers.

The whole exercise of Green Revolution was like copying the idiots in the 'advanced economies'. Farming community was locked up in the cage of industrialised civilisation. They were like prisoners who were free to choose between doom and extinction. Agricultural scientists, in conjunction with the government department of Agriculture and with the help of foreign 'aid', taught them in such a way that they unlearned their traditional knowledge accumulated over hundreds of generation and started to behave like conquerors of the nature. We were not just another species on this planet but master of all others who are only there to serve our material needs. We did not believe anymore that Sun, air, rain and forests are there for all the inhabitants, not just for the sake of Homo sapiens.

We forgot to notice that billions of plant seeds were somehow germinating and reproducing for millions of years even before the first tractor was rolled into a field. It didn't occur to us that if you do not harden the soil running heavy farm machinery on it, you don't need to plough it to soften it up.

By developing some chemical poisons that can kill the insects and plants who compete with humans food production goals, these scientists start to believe that humans are not just one of the millions of other species but are somewhat different and special with super natural powers.

It seems that no one can misunderstand the crisis of scientific agriculture more than the highly trained agricultural scientist himself. One can imagine the condition of a mature man who was adopted by a fanatic religious group in his early childhood. What are the odds that he can break away from his masters and join another religion? An advanced degree of modern agricultural science is no different. These scientists are far too committed in their beliefs and far too dependent on the financial rewards for sticking to their guns that it doesn't make sense for them to change the course.

The grip of modern educational institutions is so tight that only a few can escape without severe constraints in their ability to think independently once they are fed through this mass production shaft. First of all a new scientist cannot graduate/post-graduate from a university unless he submits a thesis in line with the prevalent line of thinking of that institution. His score, scholarship, degree and finally job prospects depends on it.

Those who excel in such studies and do further research enhancing these scientific intervention techniques, secure high decision making executive positions in various government agencies and departments. At the top level a nexus is thus build between those officials, their political masters and multi national corporations that eventually benefit from the sale of their seeds, fertilizers, chemicals and farm machinery. Even if an agricultural engineer or a farm scientist reaches to the conclusion that his interference into eternal laws of nature is unwarranted and destructive, he cannot advocate the uselessness of his profession without losing his livelihood.

The followers of the sect of scientific agriculture are certainly capable of making the natural balance undone for a while but Mother Nature is not mother Teresa. Sooner or later Nature will use its veto power and force the equilibrium. We cannot sustain for long whilst exceeding the carrying capacity of our local environment, first and foremost its land and water. 

May be its not the fault of farmers or scientists after all. It was not long ago we all were hunter-gatherers and in the face of daily needs and threats our genes are still programmed to worry about the short-term survival in the immediate environment and not think beyond that.

It’s painful for the farmers to admit that their governments and universities, all of who promoted mechanised, energy intensive and chemical based farming practices, has fooled them. This 'Green Revolutionary' model of farming not only ruined their land and water but also forced them to go in a deep hole of debt, making it virtually impossible to get out without committing suicide.

Current political turmoil in Africa, Middle East is in fact an expression of a food crisis. Any modern scientific model of farming, whether operating under a Socialist or Capitalist economic system is in danger of collapse without unlimited supply of limited cheap fossil fuels.

Efficiency of modern scientific techniques such as tractors, pesticide power sprayers and tube-wells all help us to make our journey to the finish line faster, more efficient. 


It is not easy for an inmate to plot the prison break, not first without realising that he has been imprisoned. Only then he can think of the possible escape routes. Scientific farming is like fighting a War against Nature, no chance of winning. Sooner we admit our defeat and return to age-old traditional natural farming, better are the chances of averting more suicides in the farming families.


daradhillon@hotmail.com

Life and Death of Empires

Empires are all the same by nature. Whether it was a Monarchy of England, Democratic USA, Fascist Germany or Socialist Russia. All empires have a pretty much similar Imperial agenda. It doesn't matter whether you have a Christian or Muslim king on the throne. Likewise it doesn't depend on the colours of its flag or the skin of its ruler. Whether you have a smart-Black or dumb-White President,  they all have a job card waiting for them, well before they finish the last sentence of their swearing in ceremony.

All of them eventually get trapped in their job description. Sometimes they have the option to get out of this trap if they leave their Imperial agenda unfinished,  which basically means that they can leave only when they seize to be an Empire.

How far you can go depends on your intellect and conviction. Man with little intellect can stop and think but a man of conviction have to keep on marching.

One of the toughest thing for an Emperor (President) is to give up his imperial ambitions. This applies as much to Alexander the Great as it does to Nobel peace laureate Obama. It continue to expand until it starts contracting and drop dead. Rarely they bring the troops home without getting their imperial pride completely shattered.

Lucky ones, such as China and Japan get defeated earlier on in their outward journey due to economic or military reasons. Unlucky ones like Germany, Soviet Russia and the US of America win few wars and move on to the next round of suicidal mission.

Their military machine becomes so heavy and thick, like the walls of their embassies, that it becomes impossible to transport it back to the motherland. Their wars become unsustainable especially when their rivals are light weight and light budget, such as communist Guerrillas of Vietnam and Taliban of Afghanistan.

Another characteristic about modern stupid Empires is that they portrait as Peace Keepers or Democracy Builders who are only there to help the people they occupy. They don't demand any tribute for their country, just few favourable oil and defense contracts for their favoured corporations.

Sometime you don't care what your army will bring back home, you just wish you can bring your army back. When it is too late, it is known as Imperial path at a point of no return.

The State; an Evil and Unnecessary Institution

The State and its Taxes; an Evil and Unnecessary Institution of Economic and Political Slavery

“One can’t avoid Taxes and Death”, that’s what we are taught, by the State of course. Let us agree with Death part of the statement and examine the Taxes whilst we are still alive. Death was here long before some one was taxed for the first time. Taxes only came to existence few thousand years ago, primarily in the form of human slavery. Its journey from slavery to modern income tax encompasses few hundred types such as property tax, goods and service tax, salt tax, health tax etc. They all are curse on us and they take away part of our life under the threat of coercion. That’s why the State as its driving force is a predominately an anti-social institution.

The common man, under the influence of mass education and mass media cannot imagine living without taxes and governments but when a man of integrity receives a tax bill, or a law is passed restricting use of his native language or his religious beliefs, a part of him is murdered. He doesn’t want to say yes and he can’t say no. When someone, a group or class rules over others, including him, he feels it like a condition of slavery.

Human material needs can only be met by two distinct ways. One is through economic means like a farmer growing a crop or a factory worker producing some goods. Secondly through political (parasitic) means, taxing the producers by using the state power to do so. The political one is by far an easy and more desirable option for many of us.

When we study the origin of any state, we find the evidence of conquest from the defeated owners of the former State and seizure from current economic producers under the pretext of taxes. Every country has a limited quantity of human social power. Any power and wealth that we see in the hands of the State was basically taken away from its citizens sometime in the past. One can trace down every single penny in the State’s coffers to a working human being.

Winner’s reward can have many forms. In the times of Genghis Khan it could be women, cattle or horses; In the times of Alexander the Great it was gold and silver coins but these days, in the times of Bush and Obama, it is mainly energy resources such as Oil and Gas. Sometime it is simply a contract of future sales under the terms and condition of the winning side. A State cannot exist without economic exploitation of some sort. Anyone who controls a state, even for a short while, can and does uses it for the benefit of himself, his family, his supporting group or the class it represents and Nothing Else.

Total power in the hands of any society and its Sate is pretty much constant. What one has the other side is deprived of it. The other characteristic of a State is that it has to keep increasing its power all the time to remain in power. In that process, it accumulates disproportionally high power and not enough social power to hold its weight. At that point, it also becomes extremely complex in its composition, and then it has to collapse.

Institution of State was never designed for the benefit of all It is simply there to protect the winner from the loser group or class. Abolish or curtail any future threat to its authority from internal and external powers. Minister of Interior, Home Minister, Foreign Minister and Secretary of State are not just fancy designations. They have a specific role to play. They are slaves of the State too. Most of the job is already cut out for them when they take charge. That’s why millions of people feel disheartened when they don’t find any substantial change in a country’s foreign and internal policies with the change of governments within the same State. That’s why commander-in-chief Obama could not even order the closure of Guantanamo Bay prison, let alone shutting down over one hundred army bases around the globe. Not until the Empire State seizes to be an Empire State.

All States, like all businesses collapse one day when cost of maintaining them exceeds the return on their investment. Never think that a State can defend you from any foreign aggression, it can merely force its citizens to defend it. A State uses its full force of guns and boots to keep its monopolistic control over its market territory, its participants and keep away other competing foreign state monopolies. It can only exist as a monopoly and no other way. That’s why when a territory of any state wants its independence to break away, it is classified as a separatist movement and crushed with full State force.

One can bring a government to justice but State is always above law, until it is gone. So you have to either capture it for your class benefit or dismantle it for the benefit of all. Think twice when you pay your next tax bill or vote for electing someone to rule over you. Each tax dollar and each vote transfer a part of your power to the State. At the same time discard this suggestion as rubbish if you happen to be in the ruling elite political group of your State.

http://daradhillon.blogspot.com

daradhillon@hotmail.com

Dictatorship, Democracy; What next?

Lately it seems that the whole world wants to vote for someone, especially if they have not voted before. The Democracy is the most popular form of governance, in the opinion of human population living at present.

Like all other natural phenomenon, laws of natural selection and evolution are very much applicable to the State and various forms of its Governments. These states and governments were only born when the conditions were favourable for their birth. With the same token, they will all die when time is ripe for their departure. It seems that the time for monarchy, dictatorship, military and authoritarian regimes is reaching their logical end point. The populace of these virtually obsolete states have evolved at a faster pace then the controlling state itself so these states must switch to some other form or vanish. The democratic governments around the world have passed the test so far and will be eligible to go to next round.

Kingdoms lasted for few centuries, dictators for few decades but how long these democracies will survive the test of the time?  Who knows? Survivors are entitled to rejoice but they should prepare for their own turn, like all others that have been their predecessors.

The Democratic regimes, although holding the top ranking at the moment, were not always the preferred mode of government. It is probably the most suited for the current level of evolution of the majority of people. With mass education and relatively free access to world media, the citizens are becoming well informed and Democracy has evolved as an appropriate response to that. It is the most advanced and stealth way of robbing a considerable share of its citizens’ labour with the least amount of resistance and pain. Very much like operating under general anaesthesia, controlled and well regulated.

These smart states can hire soldiers, scientists, police, judiciary, media and even artists to work towards their politico-economic goals. An agricultural scientist thinks she can improve the standard of living of millions of farmers, whilst an army colonel wonders what will happen to his fatherland without his battalion. By getting the ‘privilege’ to vote and elect their rulers every few years, electorate develop the illusion of being part of the state machine. At the same time ruling elite of the society is happy to have their slice of the pie.

If one believes in Democracy and still protests against the government elected by the majority, there must be a flaw in the equation. Either he voted for the wrong party by mistake or he doesn’t believe in the rule of majority government?

It is quite easy to depose a dictator or a king. The target is obvious and there are clear demarcation between the protestor and the target. Who do you topple when it is your own people’s elected government on the other side; you know the one which is of the people, by the people, for the people?

daradhillon@hotmail.com

Debt, Inflation and Democracy

The parliamentary democratic elections are predominately a contest of promises. Promises to give more than what is actually on hand. The only situation where this deception can work slickly is when the tax collected from a minority of producers is sufficient to spread across majority of eligible voters. Parliamentary leaders are essentially professional risk assessors and fund managers; calculating and speculating the marginalised voters’ response to their election promises. The only difference from private sector is that state funds are collected with force and management fee is quite exuberant.

Human societies, like other creations of nature, are evolving all the time; from simple to more complex ones. Then a time comes when they become too complex and can not withstand their own burden. They break down to simpler forms, if they are lucky. Alternatively they vanish and give chance for others to attempt. Our parliamentary democratic system is no exception.

This Socio-Political-Economic model of industrialised economies is not dead yet. It is merely approaching its advanced stage and getting exhausted. Very much like the American Empire at the present, but has not attained the status of old British or Greek Empires.

This system of governance; which is over a century old in many countries, relies on heavy taxes, numerous ‘social welfare’ schemes and economic subsidies. This extremely powerful and successful political system is like an old warrior, with plenty of victory medals on its chest is not willing to go down without a fight.

During the last two centuries, due to an explosion in the human population and availability of newfound natural resources especially cheap oil and coal, creating surplus production, almost any system could have managed to stay afloat.

A point comes in the life cycle of each such economy, when the expenditure grows faster than the revenue. Then popular governments are unable to meet their election promises such as providing cheap food, electricity, public health and mass education. Giving more and taking less can work for a while, sometimes even for 100-200 years, but not for ever.

All such governments, without exception, start borrowing to spend and increase private and public debt until there is no one left to lend to them. By that time the total debt is beyond their capacity to repay honestly. Instead of defaulting and accepting their failure, they resort to printing paper notes with photos of dead leaders or presidents.

It is not a clerical mistake or calculation error by the central bankers that money supply is ever increasing in all countries since its creation.  Neither is it a coincidence that all the major world trade partners are running their printing presses round the clock and debasing their own currencies. It is quite sensible for the current rulers to pass on the debt to the future ones if they can get away with it.

Printing money is not painless but there is no other easy way out. This excessive money supply creates inflation and eventually hyperinflation. The public gets upset when they realise their standard of living is dropping. Their real wages are going down whilst cost of living, especially the food prices go up.

Occasionally these baffled citizens are forced to march on the streets demanding the replacement of the government that they themselves elected to the high office. It is almost like admitting that they made a mistake in the last election or they do not believe in next elections. They want their elected governments to bring the food prices down as if the governments can pass a law to print more food.

The angry voters are not prepared to listen to the truth. Not knowing the rationale behind this scenario, they want to hear answers that sound good to them. They listen to the candidate who promises to change the current system and remove the undesirable facts such as poverty, unemployment etc. Sometimes biggest liar gets the job.

The voters may not get what they want but usually get what they deserve. Either they get an army dictator or a new democratic government headed by someone who promises something more wonderful thus avoiding their collision with reality. The new incumbent promises to meet their list of demands.

On the other hand, voters have no desire to know who will pay for all these freebies and where the money will come from. If voters want less than what they pay to the government, why do they need someone to govern them?

If someone highlights the mathematical impossibility in spending more than their tax revenue, one is eliminated from the list of elected parliamentarians. It is democracy after all.  Democratically contesting political parties, and to some extent elected government is only answerable to the current pool of voters. To keep the present voters happy and under control, quite often, these governments have to borrow from future generations by selling national assets, both above and underground.

There are some other symptoms of this decaying model of governance. You might already be noticing the degeneration of human rights, increase in police and military presence and diminishing freedom of media in various parts of the world. These symptoms suddenly get lot worse when these ‘popular governments’ don’t have means to support their popular boondoggles.

Sometimes, these do-gooder politicians are so religiously convinced about their duty to improve the lives of their citizens as well as those of other sovereign countries, that they send their armies to spread their message of democracy. Taking risk to financially go broke and even borrows from their non democratic enemies. Their public and private debt increases beyond their ability to pay it back.

Can these governments cut back from the present level of expenditure? How would their voting citizens receive this? Would the tax paying citizens prefer to evade taxes and help themselves? Will there be a peaceful transition or bloody revolution? Who knows!

Leaking Empires

In continuation to; What happened to the mighty Empire?

Leaking or Bleeding?

The severity of the leaks (Wikileaks) for any government is proportional to the amounts of secrets they hold in their tank. Various governments’ efforts to stop it are also proportional to the sham that preceded it. It could be fraud against their ‘own’ people or conspiracies against the non obeying governments of other sovereign countries.

As long as you speak against each other, you can enjoy your freedom of speech. Me lord has no problems with that but if you dare to say anything against the mighty (Sovereign) governments, then you better run. Our lords (it could be O’Bama of the USA or Julia Gillard of Australia or even measly Sarah Palin) get upset with that. In olden days they could have hanged you in public. In not so old days, they could have assassinated you but we live in different times now. Super powers have to resort to sex assault charges to arrest a freelance journalist. They rate at which the might of these Empires is diminishing, don’t be surprised if next time they charge a journalist for unlawful parking, such as leaving the news radio on in the parked car.

dara@dhillon.com.au

What happened to the mighty Empire?

O’ Bama. All of your horses and all your men?

Where are they?

Can’t they stop the leaks? We know where all the mighty Empires of the past have gone and yours is no exception. Eventually they all collapse and go to their graves. No problems with that. The difference this time around is in the scale of your opponents. How a group of half a dozen persons, with not a single soldier on the ground in 100 plus countries, no Drones flying in the skies or any nuclear sub-marine in world oceans could bring could beat the crap out of all the world powers put together.

What happened to the mighty Empire? Please ‘do something’ to protect the land of liberty and freedom. Go and get him like old Roman Emperors but make sure no one leaks it to Wiki leaks. Alternatively stop doing things that require you to keep them secret. That’s easy one.

Life Cycle and Nirvana of Capitalism

End of cheap fossil fuels and collapse of Capitalism

Capitalism is defined as a political-economic system where all or most of the means of production are owned as private property. It is also a historical specific stage of development of socio-economic relations amongst human beings. It was undoubtedly most advanced economic production society by 19^th century and since then claimed the credit of enormous ‘development’ in many parts of the world.

“Show me the tools being used by any society and I can tell you what state of socio-political development it is in”, said Karl Marx, one of the most controversial political-economist off all times. He might have grasped and explained various historical stages of social development correctly but one his most divisive theory about the fall of Capitalism (and imperialism as its highest stage) and rise of Socialism didn’t turn out the way he predicted.

Marxist hypothesis was that capitalist system is based on exploitation of labour and its growth will alienate the vast majority of working class masses from the means of production and concentrate the wealth in the hands of a tiny population of capitalists. This, he argued will lead to clash between these two antagonistic classes and working class, due to its shear numbers strength, will eventually  win. There has been lot of skirmishes at lot of places between these two classes in the last two centuries with Capitalism in the winning league so far. At least that is the predominant view.

The final decisive battle of haves and have-nots may or may not happen the way Marx envisaged over a century ago but something else is happening without being noticed by majority of populace. It is the process of burning of the fossil fuels and its impact on the present and future of capitalism.

Fossil fuels are simply the solar energy stored as Hydro-Carbon deposits under the crust of earth over a period spanning millions of years. We homo-sapiens, currently the most dominant animal specie of this planet, have extracted and burnt more than half of the total fossil fuel stocks, especially the easily extractable ones in the last two centuries alone.

No one is denying that we humans are consuming fossil fuels at such a rate that can’t be replaced in our few thousand generations time frame. The only difference of opinion between various researchers is whether the left over stock is enough for 30 years or 50. This 20 odd years difference is simply because their computers don’t know how much Saudi Arabian, Iranian or Russian government is lying about their national oil and gas reserves.

This is not to suggest that there will be no oil or gas left somewhere deep underground in the next few decades, but it is to say that it will not be economical to extract it any more. In other words, we might need to burn two drums of oil to extract one. Very much like Ethanol production fantasy in the USA where they are burning tenfold quantity of fossil fuels to produce corn crop for each unit of Ethanol.

The stored quantity of fossil fuels is limited in nature by the physical size of our planet and the fact that it can only exist up to a certain depth due to temperature and pressure restrictions. Today if you know the fossil fuel reserves of any ‘developed’ country and its current consumption rate, one can easily determine the time left before the inevitable collapse of industrialised economy from that part of the world.    

At the heart of capitalism is capital wealth, which Marx defined as a result of exploitation of surplus labour accumulated by the owner of the means of production. It may sound logical on the surface looking purely at exploitation of labour.  Wealth is only created when labour’s output is more than its input, or simply when you produce more than what you use as input in dollar terms.

For thousands of years our forefathers were merely leading a life of survival, incapable of producing any surplus of their essential needs. Their entire capital wealth was mostly comprised of some stone tools and animal skin coat. There were some social divisions amongst tribal and feudal societies and consequently some unequal distribution of wealth but it was negligible as compared to accumulated wealth of contemporary societies. All this changed spectacularly in the last few hundred years. Our capacity to produce surplus increased hundreds of times over in the course of few generations.

Was it a result of industrial and technological revolution, conveniently proclaimed as a built-in feature of capitalism or was there another factor crucial in creating this production boost? When we analyse the current industrial production system from a different paradigm based on energy input, the common beliefs start shattering. We note that the surplus production capacity of any society is directly proportional to the amount of energy consumed by it, both animal and fossil.

The most fundamental laws of thermodynamics state that the energy can be changed from one form to another but cannot be created out of nothing. It also describes that at every transformation step, there is inevitable loss of energy. When we apply this law to observe any modern mechanised production process, it will be quite obvious even to the qualified economists, that we are playing a game of net energy loss. It is only when we humans bring ancient solar energy deposits to the party and use them in the form of coal, oil and gas in modern agricultural or industrial production, that it gives us enormous material wealth in the shape of food, houses, cars and other material possessions.

Era of Capitalist growth could broadly be marked between year 1775, when James Watt’s coal fired steam engine was deployed somewhere in mines near the city of London and year 2008, when staff at Lehman Brothers packed their personal belongings for one last time before leaving their famous office building in the city of New York. With world peak oil extraction achieved once and for all in the first decade of 21^st century and is in a permanent decline from here onwards. Very much like a retiring decorated soldier with lot of war medals on his chest but unfit for redeployment.

The energy released by burning this ancient stock of saved fuel was the prime-mover of growth of Capitalism rather than any magic recipe or formula of theory of capitalism. To test the validity of this hypothesis, one can conduct a simple test. (Caution: do not try this experiment at home, even with adult supervision as it could be fatal). Just do a mental exercise. Imagine living your normal life but without using any oil, gas, coal or electricity generated by these sources.  Anyone can do this thought experiment at individual, family or even at country level. You wouldn’t need a university degree to understand the severity of the situation we are in without fossil fuels at our disposal. In fact, more educated you are, more daunting it would be for you.

Extraction of fossil fuels and its burn off at the current rate is very unique to present times. It has never happened before and it may never happen again in the life time of human specie. In the process of creating capital wealth since the beginning of industrial revolution, not only we have consumed the past savings but we have mortgaged the future generations as well.

All of the known and well established benchmarks of superiority of Capitalism will soon fall apart in matter of hours. Whether it is our high standard of living based on imported consumer goods, choice of food procured from various continents, high rise air-conditioned steel-concrete office building or  sports utility vehicles, they all become obsolete the moment we start thinking in the direction of oil-less-ness.

Everything wouldn’t be bad though. There will be some winners as the state control fades away. The police can’t chase you everywhere without their fleet of super cars. For a change you can afford to skip your tax bills as there is no way tax office can enforce their rules without the help of police, sheriff or jail staff, most of them can’t even show up on their job without fuel in their car tanks let alone come after you.

Even the military can’t go too far from their bases to visit other parts of the world like Iraq and Afghanistan.  Had they been already deployed for the ‘noble’ cause of exporting democracy and human rights, there is nothing much we can do without aviation fuel but pray for them. They won’t be able to fly back home and may consider applying for Iraqi or Afghani asylum on humanitarian and compassionate grounds. The lucky ones may even get chance to marry local girls and have families there just like soldiers from the army of Alexander the great.

Many scientists and most politicians always try to provide solutions to any problems faced by their contemporary societies, be it Global Warming or Global Financial Crisis. In nature some problems simply don’t have solutions. Imminent collapse of Capitalist economy reliant on unlimited supply of limited fossil fuels is probably one of those problems. May be Collapse is the only solution. All we can do is to guess its timing and watch the spectacle.

It is not easy to imagine or predict how it will turn out once continuous growth based capitalist model collapses with the inevitable exhaustion of cheap fossil energy sources. But once it collapses under its own weight, it won’t be end of the world. It will just readjust to sustainable energy levels in the absence of fossil fuels.

The mainstream political parties of all industrial nations, capitalist and communist alike; have committed themselves to the path of continuous economic growth at the ever increasing use of fossil fuels and other mineral resources. Capitalism doesn’t provide them with any suitable tool to handle the situation where the GDP stops increasing from the last quarter. Torchbearers of free capitalism don’t like the freedom of markets to correct their past errors anymore then they like freedom of Banks to go bankrupt.

The noble laureate economic advisers tell their respective governments to adjust the throttle, pull some levers, tweak the fuel injector and it will be all right again; at least for the current term in the office. What they don’t know or don’t admit is that this time a minor service will not fix the car and they should avail another opportunity called ‘Cash for Clunkers’. One can recover from fever, a common cold or even a mental depression but I haven’t seen anyone recovering from death. My grand parents and all the generations who lived before them may be still trying to bounce back from death. No amount of stimulus can revive them. It seems that we have reached the pinnacle of capitalism and it may be the time for Nirvana of Capitalism.

dara@dhillon.com.au

Bankruptcy of Oil Based Agriculture

End of fossil fuels can Bankrupt Green Revolution

(This article was published by The Tribune on 24 March 2010)

‘Green Revolution’ was a phenomenon that dominated the developing countries since 1950s. As it was associated with increased food production which was believed to be the saviour of the world’s poor and hungry, not many people challenged its sustainability. Was it due to new inventions of crop varieties, chemical pesticides and fertilisers; or was there something else more fundamental that caused this boost in agricultural production?

Agriculture, like any other production process needs a certain amount of energy input to produce something more useful as output. One of the major portions of farm energy input has always been available in the form of solar energy. This is consumed by plants using their photosynthesis capabilities and the rest of the input was filled in by animal/human energy in the shape of their physical labour. That model wasn’t capable to feed 7 billion humans presently inhabiting this planet but nonetheless, it was sustainable. Sustainable system is one which over its lifetime produces enough energy to maintain, grow and reproduce itself.

Then with the availability of relatively cheap fossil fuels (hydro-carbons) and the farm machinery that runs on these fuels, the farmers were more than happy to switch to this new ‘Green Revolutionary’ system of non-renewable-energy intensive farming. This new model made farmers totally dependant on ever increasing energy consumption thus increasing fossil fuel content of our food chain. Fossil fuel (Oil) is simply the solar energy stored as hydro-carbon deposits under the crust of earth over a period of millions of years.

There are two factors worth mentioning here about the fossil fuels. Firstly, fossil fuel reserves are of limited quantity due to the fact that they can only exist at a certain temperature and pressure hence found only up to a certain depth under earth’s surface. Secondly, they don’t exist everywhere. Mother Nature did not distribute its resources evenly. She gave oil to Saudis but didn’t provide them with good soil or water. To Punjabis, she bestowed good soil and water but no oil. May be she thought it would be too humdrum if everybody was treated alike.

Farmers are mostly aware of the visible energy inputs in the form of diesel consumed by tractors or electricity consumed by irrigation motors. Beside this, a huge quantity of invisible energy is consumed to manufacture other farm inputs. Consider tractor for instance; right from the time of mining iron ore, making steel, shipping steel, transporting thousands of factory workers to manufacture a few hundred different parts in dozens of different cities, assembling and shipping a working tractor. All this happens well before the machine enters the fields.

The energy cycle is visible only when you start your tractor for actual ploughing, sowing, harvesting and transportation of the farm produce to the markets. Invisible energy cycle starts again when the farm produce is sent to the storage, processing and packaging to be shipped to the end users across the country or even overseas. Other farm inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides have energy cycles of their own. Pumping irrigation water either by diesel engines or electricity produced by coal power plants adds another substantial hydro-carbon foot-print.

Total solar energy received on a daily basis by our planet sets a limit to maximum photosynthesis capacity and thus set the maximum amount of food that can be produced sustainably. The only other way to increase production is to use stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels.

If we want to continue practicing agriculture for centuries to come, also known as Permaculture, then we better understand the energy cycle, the soil nutrient cycle and the water cycle of the current model of agricultural practices. Are we consuming more energy than we are producing in the form of food crops? Are we returning everything produced on our land back to it? Are we consuming water faster than what is being replaced by Nature?

To answers these questions, one doesn't need a degree from a university. Put these questions to any number of farmers and almost all of them will make out the correct answers. They all know that soil nutrients are being depleted and only partially replaced by petroleum based fertilisers; ground water level is dropping in most locations. What they don’t know or don’t want to discuss is whether this fossil fuel based farming system is sustainable or not?

It is such a daunting thought that majority of us does not want to recognize the problem or even discuss it. Some of us acknowledge the problem but hope that someone else will invent a solution. The public discussion on this topic is certainly absent. What a dangerous fantasy.

The current model of agriculture is severely dependant on adding a huge amount of non-renewable and mostly imported energy in the form of diesel, petrol and gas. As we have consumed more than half of the hydro-carbon stock from the ground in the last century alone, oil and gas are set to deplete within our lifetime. Since we are fast heading to a post-carbon age, consequently the cost of hydro-carbons will increase many fold in the near future. This will have a multiplier effect on the production costs and prices of all food items.

No matter which political party you belong to and no matter how many Andolans or Morchas you put together, you can’t run away from this simple mathematical correlation. We can blindly carry on this path of maintaining or even increasing the agricultural production by tapping the remaining stockpile of fossil fuels until we finish it. Then what? Imagine for a moment, agriculture without fossil fuels. Can a farmer plough, sow, harvest, process and transport wheat or rice crop on a mere 10 Acre land? It is very intimidating for present day farmers to think this scenario but it should also send forewarning to population that rely on surplus production by farming community.

It would be naïve to think that government will do something to fix this. Their prime job is to keep the things as usual, at least till the next elections. It is guaranteed to maintain the status quo, especially if the proposed changes can cause decrease in production, consumption and therefore result in reduced tax revenues. Which section of population is likely to pay the price for this readjustment? Politicians might lose their hungry voters but they can switch sides, some government officials may lose their jobs but they might find a real productive work elsewhere. Ultimately, it will be the farming community that will face the brunt by losing their livelihood. They can’t leave their land and go elsewhere.

Farmers are the one who have no option but to change their operations from mechanised to localise organic farming. But how can we change the system if we can’t even perceive the problem? Like any other grass root movement you might have a small group to start with new way of thinking. Get on with localise farming practices and even start a local trade based on barter system and slowly become fully self-sufficient. Not depending on cheap fossil fuels and any sort of government help. The ultimate achievement for any village community would be to establish an Eco-Village; a complete self sustaining unit. All this might find resistance from the establishment; after all we are talking about Agrarian Reforms.

Most of us can’t handle too much reality and it is devastating when age old traditions shatter for whatever reason. At the same time, if you are not a scientist or a government official, you may have retained the ability to see things in a simple way. We can’t see the predicament of the current farming model and its imminent collapse unless we understand the short life span of fossil fuels and move away from intensive mechanised farming practices that solely rely on it. We can plan ahead now and try for relatively smooth transition or wait for oil to run out at some point in the near future and everything will change for us without seeking our advice. It is a harsh view but there is no easy way out.

Eating Oil and Soil – Imminent Collapse of Agriculture in Punjab

(This article was published by The Tribune on 4th Feb 2010.)

History of Agriculture is approximately 10,000 years old. This is when some of our ancestors changed their life style of hunter-gatherer and started crop production that required relatively permanent settlements which subsequently turned into our villages.

Punjab, thanks to its Aab (fresh water resources) and deep fertile soils provided a natural package which helped our past few hundred generations to have a sustainable harvest. They were not educated by famous agricultural universities but somehow most of them sustained by not over exploiting their soil and water resources. They might have to divide their parcel of land to smaller portions to their next generations, but the quality of parcels was maintained. Soil was neither poisoned with artificial fertilizers, chemical insecticides, pesticides nor compacted with heavy tractors and other farm machinery. May be they were simply lucky not to have electric or diesel powered tube-wells capable of sucking the ground water from such depths that it might need next few generations to live without water and give enough time to nature to fill up the ground aquifer again.

Then something changed in the 2nd half of the last century. With the emergence of world industrialization and globalisation Punjab farmers got struck with greatest curse, hailed at the time as ‘Green Revolution’. Farmers were led to believe that their land can produce more and more if they get rid of their bullocks and buy a tractor, not to dirty their hands with cow manure and use bags of Urea instead, not to waste time in sowing a crop for green manure or give a rest to the soil by having a lay year but go for intensive cultivation as suggested by the American educated Agricultural Scientists of Punjab Agricultural University. These advocates of ‘Green Revolution’ also advocated the heavy use of poisonous chemicals, mainly produced by multinational chemical companies who were offering scholarships to scientist prepared to promote their way of thinking. Some of these crops were not suitable to Punjab’s soils and climate and thus required enormous artificial irrigation compelling the farmers to install centrifugal pumps left right and centre, running on cheap subsadised electricity or diesel fuel. Sometimes they were duped to have free electricity in exchange of their votes, which encouraged them to cultivate paddy crop on barren sandy lands. It gave them an illusion of prosperity whilst sucking many of them deeper into financial debt. If my grandfather was ridding a horse, my father rode a motor cycle, I must drive a car and the next generation would obviously like to fly an airplane. To stay in that unwinnable race, inadvertently Punjab farmers were increasing the fossil fuel content in the production chain.

Oil (Fossil Fuels) is simply the solar energy stored as Hydro-Carbon deposits under the crust of earth over a period of millions of years. Human specie was unlucky to be smart enough to pump and burn more than half of it in just over 100 years. No one is denying that we humans are consuming fossil fuels at such a rate that can’t be replaced in few thousand generations time frame. The only difference of opinion between various researchers is whether there is enough left over for 30 years or 50. This 20 year difference is simply because computers don’t know how much Saudi Arabian, Iranian or Russian government is lying about their oil reserves. This is not to suggest that there will be no oil left somewhere deep underground but it is to say that it will not be economical to extract it any more. In other words, it might need to burn 2 drums of diesel to produce 1 drum. Very much like Ethanol production fantasy in the USA where they are burning tenfold quantity of fossil fuels to produce equivalent quantity of Ethanol.

Farmers all over the world, including that of Punjab, have/had a culture of not selling their farm land. They would rather add to their holding if possible and pass it on to the next generation. This is programmed in their genes to make sure their off springs have a better chance of survival and keep the gene pool alive. One should not be surprised to see a large proportion of court cases related to land disputes. Land is valued so high in mind controlled by our genes that one can kill his real brother for the sake of gaining an extra piece of land. What we did in the last 50-60 years was not in line with the rules of nature. We developed a delusion that we can control the forces of nature. Instead of acting as care-taker of land for coming generations, we started to act like Land-Owner.

So where does it lead us? Is there any hope of survival? Fortunately this entire mirage is coming to an end in the near future. The good news is that as much as multi-national companies like to sell their chemicals, fertilizers and machinery to toiling farmers of Punjab, they won’t be able to produce and transport all that without cheap oil either. Fortunately, for some of us, who haven’t been ruined by unserviceable debts, who haven’t sold our farming land to city developers and who haven’t started taking drugs to avoid the harsh reality, there is still a hope to go back to our pre green-revolutionary way of farming based on locally available resources. Rejuvenate our soil by adding organic manure and choosing sustainable cropping pattern not dependant on cheap oil inputs.

Natures’ court is very unforgiving to those who try to be smarter than her but at the same time she may consider an appeal from those who acknowledge their mistake and undertake to correct them. Lets all try to understand the importance of Guru’s following words.

“Pawan Guru, Pani Pita, Mata Dharat Mahat”.

Mass Education

Kids' Higher Education

Kids’ education and Higher Education. Every Mama wants her baby to go through this path, higher and higher. This phenomenon is common all over the world across different races, different countries. It is as common as a farmers’ desire to have more land, cattle sheep etc. Does it mean there is a universal driving force behind it?

Due to my personal experience, here I will use examples from Indian and Australian context. I have found the affordability may be different and the priorities may be different but desire to have a most sellable degree is very much common. Why would someone spends 10-15 years of their prime life if the rewards don’t justify the input? Is it always beneficial to have higher education or it is calculated risk? Sometime there are financial rewards such as degree in Medicine in a developing country can payback within a year or two. May be a graduate degree in anything is a requirement of a government job that can pay several times the effort and money input for that. Sometime there could be social status reward such as better matrimonial prospect for graduate daughter of a well to do family.

Secondly if we do decide to get educated, how do we pick subject of study or Institution of Higher Education? We will see a sharp contrast when we compare today’s choice of masses, which is primarily market driven courses from factory like mass production Universities and few generation ago when only few from elite/rich families were able to provide for their kids education. Back then it was not important what job they will get when they spend few years with their Guru (teacher) but what knowledge they have acquired be it military or political. Some were even above this and were sending their kids to study philosophy, music, literature or even religion. These days one doesn’t get paid enough to survive by pursuing these fields with the exception of religion.

May be the answer lies in the doctrine of mean. Practice one profession such as Real Estate sales or Stock broking for financial reward and learn poetry or gardening for mental reward.

Until next time….

Dara Dhillon

Happy New year 2010

I wish that I can wish everyone a Happy New Year. Life is not that simple. Lots of people will be unhappy if everyone else is happy.

There are approximately 7 billion members of human specie and I have about 3 billion good wishes in my stock. This means that I have to be selective in bestowing my wishes. Beside this, good for human being could mean bad for many other species but I will leave that dialogue for another day. Influenced by my ancient culture, I am biased towards the underdogs.

First on my list is Farmers of the world. Their land is shrinking, their water is drying, soil is eroding at such a rate that without my good wishes, they have no chance to have a good harvest for long. Coming from a farming family I know that we folks are very hard working but dumb(er) sub-specie of humans unlike our close relatives who choose a different path some 200 years ago to work for Federal/ Commonwealth governments or banks etc.

Second on my list are factory workers, especially of the US and Europe. Their standard of living is dropping faster than property prices in Detroit. But hang on; I have used all my 3 billion stock on the first item on the list so they have to wait till 2011.

List to be continued…